DOLLAR FALLS AS BAILOUT PLAN ERODES CONFIDENCE IN U.S. FINANCES

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Dollar Falls as Bailout Plan Erodes Confidence in U.S. Finances

By Ron Harui and Ye Xie
Enlarge Image/Details

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar fell for a second day against the yen on concern a U.S. government proposal to buy $700 billion of troubled assets will erode confidence in the nation's finances.

The greenback traded near a one-month low against the euro as Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's plan would increase the nation's debt ceiling by 6.6 percent to $11.315 trillion. The currency also declined before U.S. reports this week that may show home sales slowed, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates.

``Obviously there are genuine concerns over the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal position,'' said Tony Morriss, a senior currency strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group in Sydney. ``The dollar will remain under pressure.''

The dollar declined to 105.26 yen as of 11:55 a.m. in Singapore from 105.51 yen late in New York yesterday, when it fell 1.8 percent. It traded at $1.4779 per euro from $1.4774 yesterday, when it touched $1.4866, the lowest since Aug. 22. The currency may weaken to 104.50 yen and $1.4900 in coming days, Morriss said. The euro dropped to 155.55 yen from 155.91 yen.

Foreign-exchange movements may be exaggerated because trading volumes are lower than normal due to a Japanese public holiday today, according to Morriss.

NOTE: MORRIS IS A WELL KNOWN CURRENCY STRATEGIST IN AUSTRALIA.

The U.S. currency has lost more than 6 percent versus the euro since touching a one-year high of $1.3882 on Sept. 11. The dollar reached $1.6038 per euro on July 15, the weakest since the European currency's 1999 inception.

Plotting Rescue

Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke began plotting the rescue last week after New York-based Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. filed for bankruptcy, the government seized control of American International Group Inc., and Merrill Lynch & Co. was forced into the arms of Bank of America Corp. Paulson and Bernanke testify before the Senate today on the banking crisis. The plan was sent to Congress Sept. 20.

The dollar also weakened on speculation that some U.S. politicians will oppose the passage of the government's plan, delaying the rescue of the beleaguered financial sector, according to UBS AG, the world's second-largest currency trader.

Republican presidential candidate John McCain called for limiting pay for executives of rescued firms, saying yesterday taxpayers shouldn't foot the bill for ``golden parachutes'' for officers of companies that have crumbled in the financial crisis.

The ``public is beginning to question why $700 billion in taxpayer's money is needed to bail out the banking sector,'' wrote Ashley Davies, a currency strategist at UBS in Singapore, in a client note today. ``Uncertainty over the implementation of Paulson's plan will keep the dollar on the back foot for now and clearly euro-dollar at $1.50 is in sight.''

The euro will end the year at $1.43, according to the median forecast of 42 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Carry Trades

The yen rose against 15 of the 16 most-active currencies on speculation investors will reduce so-called carry trades, in which traders get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest where returns are higher.

The benchmark interest rate of 0.5 percent in Japan compares with 5.25 percent in South Korea, 7 percent in Australia and 8.25 percent in Mexico, making the yen a favorite funding currency for the carry trade.

``I really like the Japanese yen,'' said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at GFT Forex in New York, in a Bloomberg television interview. ``We'll probably see the most profound weakness in the dollar against the yen just because it's a carry trade currency and a carry trade play.''

Japan's currency rose 0.9 percent to 10.91793 against the Korean won, gained 1 percent to 88.21 yen versus Australia's dollar and advanced 0.3 percent to 9.904 per Mexican peso from late in New York yesterday.

Economic Reports

Implied volatility on one-month dollar-yen options rose to 17.48 percent from 16.55 percent yesterday. Higher volatility may discourage carry trades as it suggests a larger risk of exchange-rate fluctuations that can erode profits.

The dollar also fell as home resales declined to 4.94 million last month from 5 million in July, according to a Bloomberg News survey of economists. The National Association of Realtors' report is scheduled for release tomorrow. The Commerce Department will report the next day that sales of new houses dropped to 510,000 from 515,000, a separate survey indicated.

The chance of the Fed cutting its 2 percent benchmark rate by a quarter-percentage point at its Oct. 29 policy meeting was 34 percent yesterday, compared with zero a month ago, futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade showed. The European Central Bank's main refinancing rate is 4.25 percent.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 23, 2008 00:31 EDT


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